What follows is the Plural Vote electoral forecast for the 2017 Alabama Senate special runoff election between Republican Roy Moore and Republican Luther Strange. We'll continuously update this forecast until election day as new polls come in.
This model relies on aggregating polls and creating polling averages for each candidate, weighting recent polls more highly based on an exponential function. It calculates the probabilities of various outcomes of the race, including the chance of a win for either major candidate, using a mixture of logistic and normal distribution based on the past accuracy of off-year election polling (approximately a 95% MOE or CI of +\- 7.5 pts for averages and +\- 8.5 pts for a single poll, assuming normal distribution). A mixture of normal and logistic distribution has a robust
distribution and therefore higher level of uncertainty factored into the model. Undecided voters, but not "other" voters, are allocated with an assumption of a 50-50 split.
We started tracking polls for this election since August 1st, and this model's odds are and will continue to be re-calculated as every new poll comes in.
Overall, unauthorized immigrants and non-citizens benefit the Democratic party electorally and make it easier for them to attain both a House and Electoral College majority
There is an 87% correlation coefficient between a GOP candidate's vote margin in a poll and Trump's net approval rating. In polls so far, GOP candidates do about as well as Trump's approval rating, which seems to be their ceiling of support. With Trump's approval rating at a historic low nationwide, this could spell disaster for the GOP.
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