2017 ALABAMA SENATE SPECIAL RUNOFF ELECTION FORECAST
0%
100% pct.
50%
ROY MOORE
54.8%
LUTHER STRANGE
45.1%
UNDECIDED
10.2%
20,000 ELECTION SIMULATIONSAVG. MOORE LEAD OF 9.7 POINTS93.9% | 6.1% PROB.
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL: Range of values in % of simulations
75% Interval: Range of M+13.6 pt. Moore win to M+5.8 pt. Moore win
95% Interval: Range of M+20.2 pt. Moore win to M+0.8 pt. Moore win
M+10
probability %candidate
93.9% CHANCE OF WIN
ROY MOORE
6.1% CHANCE OF WIN
LUTHER STRANGE
Extremely high odds of Roy Moore win: Strange wins in about only one in six hundred simulations.
candidate range of winning outcomesprobability %
KAREN HANDELR+0 > R+10Single-digit win46.6% prob.
JON OSSOFFD+0 > D+10Single-digit win41.9% prob.
ALLD+1 > R+1Recount14% prob.
KAREN HANDELR+10 >Double-digit win6.3% prob.
JON OSSOFFD+10 >Double-digit win5.2% prob.
POLLING DATA
CygnalM+1110-0 odds9/23-24/17
52%
41%
7%
Trafalgar GroupM+1610-0 odds9/23-24/17
57%
41%
2%
Emerson CollegeM+1010-0 odds9/21-23/17
50%
40%
10%
Gravis MarketingM+89-1 odds9/21-22/17
48%
40%
12%
JMC AnalyticsM+16-4 odds9/16-17/17
47%
46%
0%
Time for ChoosingM+1110-0 odds9/9-12/17
50%
39%
14%
Voter Consumer ResearchM+48-2 odds9/9-10/17
41%
37%
13%
Emerson CollegeTIE5-5 odds9/8-9/17
40%
40%
19%
Strategic NationalM+2510-0 odds9/6-7/17
51%
26%
34%
Southeast ResearchM+1610-0 odds8/29-31/17
52%
36%
14%
Harper PollingM+27-3 odds8/24-26/17
47%
45%
12%
Voter Consumer ResearchM+48-2 odds8/21-23/17
45%
41%
8%
Opinion SavvyM+1810-0 odds8/22-22/17
50%
32%
14%
JMC AnalyticsM+1710-0 odds8/17-19/17
51%
34%
18%
Cygnal/L2M+45-201-211 odds8/8-9/17
45%
0%
21%