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Here's what we forecast for this year's gubernatorial election in New Jersey
Our statistical prediction factors in a combination of polls, their historical accuracy, and past returns in order to forecast this competitive race
AUTHORED BY PLURAL VOTE0Write a comment POLITICS
8/4/2017
PUBLISHED 5 MONTHS AGO
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What follows is the Plural Vote electoral forecast for the 2017 New Jersey gubernatorial election between Democrat Phil Murphy and Republican Kim Guadagno. We'll continuously update this forecast until election day as new polls come in.

This model relies on aggregating polls and creating polling averages for each candidate, weighting recent polls more highly based on an exponential function. It calculates the probabilities of various outcomes of the race, including the chance of a win for either major candidate, using a mixture of logistic and normal distribution based on the past accuracy of off-year election polling (approximately a 95% MOE or CI of +\- 7.5 pts for averages and +\- 8.5 pts for a single poll, assuming normal distribution). A mixture of normal and logistic distribution has a robust, heavy-tailed distribution and therefore higher level of uncertainty factored into the model. Undecided voters, but not "other" voters, are allocated with an assumption of a 50-50 split.

We started tracking polls for this election since June 1st, and this model's odds are and will continue to be re-calculated as every new poll comes in.
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Written by PLURAL VOTE. This article was last updated on 8/4/2017.General topic:POLITICS
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