What follows is the Plural Vote electoral forecast for the 2017 New Jersey gubernatorial election between Democrat Phil
Murphy and Republican Kim
Guadagno. We'll continuously update this forecast until election day as new polls come in.
This model relies on aggregating polls and creating polling averages for each candidate, weighting recent polls more highly based on an exponential function. It calculates the probabilities of various outcomes of the race, including the chance of a win for either major candidate, using a mixture of logistic and normal distribution based on the past accuracy of off-year election polling (approximately a 95% MOE or CI of +\- 7.5 pts for averages and +\- 8.5 pts for a single poll, assuming normal distribution). A mixture of normal and logistic distribution has a robust
distribution and therefore higher level of uncertainty factored into the model. Undecided voters, but not "other" voters, are allocated with an assumption of a 50-50 split.
We started tracking polls for this election since June 1st, and this model's odds are and will continue to be re-calculated as every new poll comes in.
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Our statistical prediction factors in a combination of polls, their historical accuracy, and past returns in order to forecast this competitive race
In the first six months of President Trump's term, US-Mexico border apprehensions dropped by 47%. This is not only a higher figure than his predecessors in the same time-frame - it is also the largest decrease according to data available since 2000.
Handel has significantly increased her odds of a win in a forecast. The odds of either candidate winning is roughly even - with a slim lead for Republican Karen Handel - where two weeks ago, her odds were 1:4, or 1/5.