2017 NEW JERSEY GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION FORECAST
0%
100% pct.
50%
PHIL MURPHY
60.5%
KIM GUADAGNO
37.5%
UNDECIDED
12.5%
20,000 ELECTION SIMULATIONSAVG. MURPHY LEAD OF 23 POINTS99.7% | 0.3% PROB.
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL: Range of values in % of simulations
75% Interval: Range of D+26.9 pt. Dem win to R+19.2 pt. Dem win
95% Interval: Range of D+33.6 pt. Dem win to D+12.5 pt. Dem win
D+23
probability %candidate
99.7% CHANCE OF WIN
PHIL MURPHY
0.3% CHANCE OF WIN
KIM GUADAGNO
Near-certain odds of Murphy win: Kim Guadagno wins in about one in every 3,333 simulations.
candidate range of winning outcomesprobability %
KAREN HANDELR+0 > R+10Single-digit win46.6% prob.
JON OSSOFFD+0 > D+10Single-digit win41.9% prob.
ALLD+1 > R+1Recount14% prob.
KAREN HANDELR+10 >Double-digit win6.3% prob.
JON OSSOFFD+10 >Double-digit win5.2% prob.
POLLING DATA
Monmouth UniversityD+2110-0 win odds7/13-18/17
54%
33%
12%
Monmouth UniversityD+2710-0 win odds7/6-9/17
53%
26%
14%
Quinnipiac UniversityD+2910-0 win odds6/7-12/17
55%
26%
14%