2017 VIRGINIA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION FORECAST
0%
100% pct.
50%
RALPH NORTHAM
50%
ED GILLESPIE
47.3%
UNDECIDED
6.4%
20,000 ELECTION SIMULATIONSAVG. NORTHAM LEAD OF 2.6 POINTS67.7% | 32.3% PROB.
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL: Range of values in % of simulations
75% Interval: Range of D+6.5 pt. Dem win to R+1.2 pt. Rep win
95% Interval: Range of D+13.1 pt. Dem win to R+7.9 pt. Rep win
D+2.6
probability %candidate
67.7% CHANCE OF WIN
RALPH NORTHAM
32.3% CHANCE OF WIN
ED GILLESPIE
2/3 odds of Northam win: To every two simulations in which Northam wins, there is one Gillespie win.
candidate range of winning outcomesprobability %
KAREN HANDELR+0 > R+10Single-digit win46.6% prob.
JON OSSOFFD+0 > D+10Single-digit win41.9% prob.
ALLD+1 > R+1Recount14% prob.
KAREN HANDELR+10 >Double-digit win6.3% prob.
JON OSSOFFD+10 >Double-digit win5.2% prob.
POLLING DATA
FOX NewsD+58-2 odds11/3-6/17
48%
43%
7%
The Polling Company (R)D+16-4 odds11/3-6/17
45%
44%
4%
Monmouth UniversityD+27-3 odds11/3-6/17
47%
45%
5%
Change ResearchD+69-1 odds11/2-6/17
52%
46%
0%
Quinnipiac UniversityD+910-0 odds10/30-36/17
51%
42%
4%
Emerson CollegeD+37-3 odds11/3-5/17
49%
46%
4%
Christopher Newport UniversityD+69-1 odds10/29-35/17
51%
45%
2%
Rasmussen ReportsTIE5-5 odds10/31-34/17
45%
45%
6%
Gravis MarketingD+58-2 odds10/30-34/17
48%
43%
6%
0ptimus (R)R+3 7-3 odds11/2-3/17
37%
40%
23%
Trafalgar Group (R)D+16-4 odds11/19-18/17
49%
48%
2%
The Polling Company (R)R+2 7-3 odds10/30-33/17
43%
45%
7%
Upshot/Siena CollegeD+37-3 odds10/29-33/17
43%
40%
14%
Roanoke CollegeTIE5-5 odds10/29-33/17
47%
47%
3%
Suffolk UniversityD+48-2 odds10/30-32/17
47%
43%
6%
Washington Post/Schar SchoolD+58-2 odds10/26-29/17
49%
44%
4%
Quinnipiac UniversityD+1710-0 odds10/25-29/17
53%
36%
7%
The Polling Company (R)TIE5-5 odds10/20-25/17
44%
44%
7%
Christopher Newport UniversityD+79-1 odds10/20-25/17
50%
43%
4%
Plural VoteD+37-3 odds10/15-25/17
49%
46%
0%
Hampton UniversityR+8 9-1 odds10/18-22/17
33%
41%
27%
FOX NewsD+79-1 odds10/15-17/17
49%
42%
5%
Quinnipiac UniversityD+1410-0 odds10/12-17/17
53%
39%
5%
Monmouth UniversityR+1 6-4 odds10/12-16/17
47%
48%
3%
Christopher Newport UniversityD+48-2 odds10/9-13/17
48%
44%
5%
Roanoke CollegeD+69-1 odds10/8-13/17
50%
44%
4%
Emerson CollegeD+58-2 odds10/5-7/17
49%
44%
5%
Christopher Newport UniversityD+79-1 odds10/2-6/17
49%
42%
6%